Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.021980 22.067223 25.716910 30.497481 36.726914 44.770619 56.305308
2025-01-19 14.674298 17.994357 22.340665 28.669677 38.077813 52.374650 77.776749
2025-01-26 14.124540 18.209184 24.014532 33.406346 49.496347 79.213611 150.440234
2025-02-02 13.092130 17.463412 24.043703 35.550610 57.624099 106.092701 265.855845
2025-02-09 11.537110 15.670225 22.088175 33.811317 57.852121 116.832211 364.194381
2025-02-16 10.893817 15.143702 22.014729 35.320666 65.288171 152.320372 723.242399
2025-02-23 10.161386 14.367711 21.375359 35.567453 70.034940 186.196426 1471.820162
2025-03-02 9.500134 13.622345 20.663746 35.480613 73.965524 223.780382 3641.883712
2025-03-09 9.012747 13.107103 20.281047 35.990331 79.873685 282.572454 23197.362742
2025-03-16 8.326610 12.188177 19.034524 34.311048 78.525307 301.949943 248082.727184
2025-03-23 7.916442 11.707923 18.557923 34.315818 82.697842 369.853053 NaN
2025-03-30 7.377502 10.959507 17.484177 32.696117 80.660808 388.320165 NaN
2025-04-06 6.767104 10.074903 16.124597 30.323807 75.700707 378.811972 NaN
2025-04-13 6.267893 9.359242 15.043940 28.507355 72.326566 382.133202 NaN
2025-04-20 6.437154 9.848422 16.412394 33.202868 97.620039 941.640149 NaN
2025-04-27 6.341886 9.842189 16.762152 35.327468 114.852475 1980.245514 NaN
2025-05-04 5.961542 9.271910 15.843371 33.604168 111.040693 2147.231766 NaN
2025-05-11 5.846171 9.196107 15.992228 35.099661 126.975148 5555.139505 NaN
2025-05-18 5.653217 8.956198 15.749998 35.344155 136.019353 14207.653008 NaN
2025-05-25 5.454435 8.691403 15.424669 35.258123 143.122397 54384.941908 NaN
2025-06-01 5.305753 8.515146 15.284943 35.763086 155.734553 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.043278 8.098147 14.548620 34.099343 149.286319 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 4.892200 7.896010 14.303000 34.104070 157.589366 NaN NaN